The 18th of September marks the anniversary of the disappearance of prominent Eritrean leaders, known as the G-15. In the early hours of the morning; Eritrea’s unelected President Isaias Afewerki– of 23 years and counting – arrested his comrades and members of his cabinet for writing an open letter, urging reform. In ten years they went from being heroes and the brains of Ghedli to “committing treason”. Angry at the trajectory of the country and unconvinced with Isaias’s role in the two year border war with Ethiopia, the G-15 members did the unthinkable. This single act of bravery changed their lives and that of the entire country. The G-15 warned that the continuation of an unconstitutional government was dangerous for Eritrea, suggesting that if they were taken seriously they would have got it right. But what if they took a different route? What if they had the public support of the army and people, removing Isaias and his loyalists?
Inspired by an article I once read in The New Statesman, titled ‘The JFK anniversary: What if Kennedy had lived? I will adopt the same theme to the G-15’s case. I will look at the Subjective History of ‘what if’ they never got kidnapped? Though such thinking is agonising and leads to further frustration; this is nevertheless still important in helping us focus on what we really want. This clarity allows us to picture a future Eritrea where such dreams become a reality. So what would have happened if they did not get arrested on that dark Tuesday? Starting with the implemented constitution – a key G-15 demand – I will see such effects on different sectors of our society.
What if?
The implemented 1997 Constitution
The G-15’s demand for the implementation of the constitution suggests a lawful Eritrea would be in sight. One where citizens feel safe and are protected by the law. Let’s just say chances of citizens being sold to human traffickers and the ransom money paid in Asmara would have been very slim. The PFDJ moderates would have succeeded the Yes Men’s, in favour of a multiparty system. This inclusive system would have protected minority rights and allowed all ELF fighters and independent thinkers back to their country, paving the way for the much awaited transition to democracy.
Free press
One of Isaias’s catastrophic acts was shutting down the private press. Indeed, the G-15 members would not have arrested the same journalists who spread their message of democracy and justice. On the contrary, the private press such as Setit with the likes of Joshua and Dawit Issac would have thrived. In fact there may have been 10, 20 or 30 Setit’s with the internet era and a new generation of inspired journalists. Those at the zenith of government would not get ‘an easy ride’ by the joys of state media, instead would be closely watched; as opposed to the haunting of citizens we are seeing today. With the triumph of free press we may have even, dare I say it, developed a more politically matured nation with the space to think critically.
Economic growth
In 2014 Eritreans would not have pity rations with a so called government failing to feed its 4 million population. There would be no frequent electricity black outs at the convenience of leaders. No queues for gas, water or any other necessity.
Petros Solomon’s key role as Minister of Marine Resources was hailed as a success in that ministry alone, even under Isaias’s leadership. Suggesting an economic system within the rule of law where citizens are encouraged to nourish their skills using natural resources would have certainly been in our grasp. The G-15’s disapproval of the absence of a national budget shows support for a transparent economy needed to place checks and balances to the powerful elite. We would know where the revenue from Bisha Gold and the 2% tax is going. It is safe to say Hagos Kisha and co. would not be profiting from what is rightfully Eritrea’s today. In return, this transparency and stability would have motivated Eritreans to invest and not run from their country.
The Army
The EDF with Ogbe Abraha as its Chief of Staff- as opposed to Filipos – would have undoubtedly undergone reform in favour of a more sustainable system. Meaning the indefinite national service would have a time limit and with the implementation of the constitution, 18 months would be the limit. With the rule of law to keep them in check, the illegal conscript of sixteen year olds would be harder to cover. A more humanised national service where some are pardoned for health or religious reasons. As a result there would be no mass exodus as we are witnessing. That’s no lampedusa’s, no Israel and no Sinai.
Education
The University of Asmara where Durue spoke prior to his arrest, would still be opened. The same inspired students would not have been arrested, multiplying their numbers. The likes of Joshua and their positive yet contagious views on educating children would have given hope and confidence to the younger generation, as opposed to deliberately knocking their confidence. We would see young and skilled Eritreans capable of providing for themselves and their families. There would most certainly be more than just one University, as opposed to the ‘Mai Nefhi’ colleges. An increase in schools throughout the country would discourage unaccompanied minors to cross neighbouring countries.
Foreign Relations
The border dispute with Ethiopia would have likely taken long to resolve but diplomacy would have been their method to achieve it. By 2014 we may have been witnessing trade relations benefiting both countries. As Minister of Foreign affairs, Haile Durue was known for his charisma and admired for his negotiation skills. Chances are this diplomacy would have not only solved this border issue but would have dictated relations with neighbouring countries. This tit-for-tat strategy would have been abandoned or at the very least toned down for a more mature and sustainable foreign policy. Under such foreign policy Eritrea would neither have deeply embarrassing and incompetent diplomats that compromise Eritrea’s integrity or UN Sanctions for arming Al-Shabab terrorists. Eritrea would have no border disputes with Djibouti and Isaias’s culture of bullying and bribery as a foreign policy tradition would no longer exist.
Below is a link of Haile Durue’s shortened 3min speech in Germany 2000. This, I believe highlighted their fundamental beliefs, hence why they were arrested. It is easy to conclude what kind of Eritrea there would have been under such a scenario.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrrbTFLQWgI
What now?
“Ma’alesh?” “Oromai?” On the contrary….
By using these five key points I believe we would have seen a very different Eritrea to the ‘North Korea’ we have been condemned to. This is by no means intended to portray them as saints or the only hope we will ever have. Indeed we may have seen parallels with South Africa’s popular but powerful ANC, nevertheless still a developing democracy with the many flaws that follow. With many challenges, life in Eritrea would not have been heaven but it would most certainly not be the hell on earth it is today. ‘What if’ should not just be a daydream. It should push us to think ‘what now?’ Refocus on what our practical goals are and how we can achieve that.
Their ideals of a more fair and just Eritrea have not been forgotten, inspiring the younger generation. Talk of “the traitors” is now a thing of the past even amongst the PFDJ. The ‘they’re all dead now” argument has also been challenged by Dejen’s bravery who turned from a haunting echo to a sobering reality for all. The Forto incident of January 21st shows that the G-15 members may have been arrested but their demands remain unbreakable, literally haunting Isaias. By signing their names to that open letter the G-15 knew their fate. What they understood was that their physical arrest could never harm their ideals but would only intensify them. The main obstacle to achieving the goals of the G-15 is the same fear that paralysed the people, silencing them for 13 years. More open letters and Forto’s will no doubt get us a step closer to achieving the unachievable.
And with that I leave my favourite quote from Haile Durue – “ Betri haki te keten ember ayteseberin”. To which I say “Futsum!”
Zara Tewolde-Berhan 